Ways out: how Boris Johnson could be ousted from power | Boris Johnson

By any normal measure, it’s fair to say Boris Johnson is doomed, given the scale of ministerial resignations and the number of backbench MPs publicly withdrawing their support. Although Johnson has often defied normal political rules, it seems to be a question of when he is ousted from No 10 rather than if. But how? Here are some scenarios.

A change in party rules and a new vote of confidence

A month ago, battered by an earlier wave of Downing Street party controversy, Tory MPs called for a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister, which he won, despite 41% of parliamentary Tories wanting it . Under party rules, winning such a vote means a leader is immune from a similar challenge for 12 months.

However, these rules can be changed, and the key to this is the 1922 Committee, the official caucus of backbench Conservatives. Next week, MPs will elect a new executive for the committee, with several candidates standing on an explicit rule-change platform so Johnson can be impeached quickly.

Perhaps the most likely scenario for Johnson being kicked out is a rule change and another vote of confidence, perhaps even before the summer break. Losing a confidence vote ends a Tory leader’s argument – they’re out.

Probability score: 3/5

A managed outing, AKA a visit from the men in gray suits

A variant of the above is what happened to Theresa May, whom Johnson played a significant role in impeachment as prime minister before replacing her.

This would see Johnson, like May, propose a deal by key backbench MPs: Announce an imminent date for your departure, or we’ll change the party rules and get rid of you anyway. As well as offering some dignity to the ousted Prime Minister, it would also allow a leadership race to take place with continuity within No 10.

For many leaders as embattled as Johnson, that would be the obvious solution. However, this rests on his logic and his desire for the best for the Conservative Party and the government, neither of which is taken for granted.

Probability score: 2/5

Johnson comes out

It would, in some ways, be the simplest solution, although it would require an interim prime minister to keep the seat warm while a new Tory leader is chosen. Dominic Raab is Deputy Prime Minister and would be the obvious choice, although things could be complicated if Raab runs to succeed Johnson.

Such an outcome could be tempting for Johnson: just get out, maybe even resign as an MP, and be free not only from political worries, but also from coercion to earn huge sums of money. on the conference circuit. He might even write his much-delayed book on Shakespeare.

But for a man often described as a dabbler, Johnson can be surprisingly stubborn. So far, he has always dismissed this option, talking instead of governing in the 2030s. But anything can happen.

Probability score: 2/5

Slow bleeding

This scenario is, in essence, a variation on one of the three above – there is no defining end point for Johnson, but days or weeks of ministers stepping down and MPs calling him out while as the Prime Minister metaphorically embarks inside No 10.

It would be deeply damaging to Johnson, not to mention the government and the country. But he has, on several occasions during his brief stint in power, done things that experts have said never happen.

It would of course have to end, most likely with a vote of confidence. But with such a disparate group of rebels and the Commons break coming, such a final battle could last for months.

Probability score: 1/5

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