the Milwaukee Brewers (19-16) welcome the NL Central-leader Cardinals of Saint-Louis (21-14) Tuesday to start a three-game game at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbookthe lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies last weekend after a four-game split with the New York Mets. The Cardinals haven’t lost a streak since losing two of three to the Washington Nationals from April 19-21.
Milwaukee beat the Miami Marlins in back-to-back games to win a three-game set last weekend. The wins broke a six-game losing skid, which included a four-game sweep to the Philadelphia Phillies
Season Series: Brewers lead 2-1.
LHP Kwang hyun kim is on the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-0 with an ERA 3.06 (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB / 9 and 9.2 K / 9 on 4 starts.
- Last outing: No decision in 4 IP of a 7 innings match with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K against the Mets on Wednesday.
- Career against the Brewers: 1-0 with an ERA of 0.75 (12 IP, 1 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.8 K / 9 over 2 starts.
- Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a slash of .172 / .250 / .241, a rate of 7/3 K / BB, 0 HR, and 1 RBI.
RHP Freddy peralta starts for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.38 (32 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.8 BB / 9 and 14.9 K / 9 on 6 starts and 1 raised aspect.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 4 PI with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Phillies.
- Career against the Cardinals: 2-1 with an ERA of 6.00 (21 PI, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K / 9 on 3 starts and 4 appearances in relief.
- Vs. Cardinals on current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274 / .357 / .581 slash, 17/6 K / BB rate, 5 HR, and 13 RBI.
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Cardinals at Brewers Odds, Lines, Pick & Prediction
- Silver line: Cardinals +105 (bet $ 100 to win $ 105) | Brewers -125 (bet $ 125 to win $ 100)
- Against the spread / ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- More less: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Brewers 3, Cardinals 2
Silver Line (ML)
There are several reasons why I BREWERS BET (-125) for 1 unit. First, Milwaukee’s roster is much more productive than left-handed pitchers compared to right-handed, while St. Louis struggles against right-handed throws.
The Brewers are 27th in WRC + and OPS and 25th in wOBA against all throws. However, against lefties, Milwaukee is fifth in wRC +, wOBA and OPS.
Conversely, the Cardinals hitting against right-handed pitchers rank in the last 10 rosters for wRC +, wOBA, BB / K and hard hit rate.
Second, Peralta is much more efficient at home and has some dirty stuff in it. For his career, Peralta is averaging 3.12 at home (5.87 ERA on the road), 1.06 at home-WHIP (1.46 WHIP on the road) and a 12-3 record at home ( 7-6 in road games).
Statcast ranks Peralta in the 97th percentile of K%, the 92nd percentile of odor%, the 95th percentile of expected wOBA, and the 94th percentile of expected slugging percentage.
Race Line / Against Spread (ATS)
PAST. Since the start of the 2020 season, Milwaukee has the worst running line record in division games (20-35 RL) and an 11-22 RL record as a home favorite.
Over / Under (O / U)
“THIN” at LESS THAN 7 (+100) for a half-unit because while I trust the Milwaukee roster there more than St. Louis and Peralta have elite advanced pitching scores, Kim also has some fantastic numbers against the Brewers.
I’m guessing every time Kim skips this game at the reliever box, St. Louis will be using right-handed relievers, which Milwaukee might have a hard time hitting.
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