In this article, we will estimate the intrinsic value of Viva Leisure Limited (ASX: VVA) by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they are easy enough to follow.
We generally believe that the value of a business is the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is only one evaluation measure among many, and it is not without its flaws. If you still have burning questions about this type of assessment, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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Step by step in the calculation
We’re going to use a two-stage DCF model which, as the name suggests, takes into account two growth stages. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “steady growth”. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or the last reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their withdrawal rate, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow down during this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in the later years.
Typically, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to present value:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF (A $, millions)||-8.50 million Australian dollars||A $ 3.00M||A $ 6.60M||A $ 9.83M||A $ 13.2M||A $ 16.6M||AU $ 19.5M||A $ 22.1M||24.3 million Australian dollars||AU $ 26.1M|
|Source of estimated growth rate||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Is at 48.9%||Is 34.81%||Is 24.94%||Is at 18.04%||Is 13.2%||Is 9.82%||Is 7.45%|
|Present value (A $, millions) with 10% discount||-7.7 AUD||AU $ 2.5||AU $ 4.9||A $ 6.7||A $ 8.2||AU $ 9.3||AU $ 9.9||A $ 10.2||A $ 10.2||AU $ 9.9|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flow (PVCF) = AU $ 64 million
The second stage is also known as terminal value, it is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 10%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU $ 26 million × (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (10% – 1.9%) = AU $ 324 million
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= A $ 324 million ÷ (1 + 10%)ten= A $ 123 million
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is A $ 187 million. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of AU $ 2.2, the company appears to have fair value at a 3.3% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
Now the most important data for a discounted cash flow is the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. Part of investing is making your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Viva Leisure as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 10%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.740. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock, relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
While valuing a business is important, it is only one of the many factors you need to assess for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect inventory valuation tool. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For Viva Leisure, we’ve put together three basic things you should explore:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we have spotted 2 warning signs for Viva Leisure you should know.
- Future income: How does VVA’s growth rate compare to its peers and to the market in general? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity, and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each ASX share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative information. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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