the Chicago Cubs (23-22) meet the Cardinals of Saint-Louis (26-19) Sunday at Busch Stadium for the rubber game of their three-game series at 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbookthe lines around the Cubs vs Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Series of the season: tied 1-1.
RHP Zach Davies makes his 10th start for the Cubs. Davies is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 4.9 BB / 9 and 5.1 K / 9 this season.
- Last out: No decision in 5 PI with 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, and 1 K in Chicago’s 6-3 win over the Washington Nationals on Tuesday.
- Career against the Cardinals: 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.33 WHIP and 8.2 K / 9 out of 10 starts.
- Vs. Cardinals on current roster: 101 at-bats with a slash of .376 / .447 / .634, 14/12 K / BB, 6 HR and 14 RBI.
RHP Adam wainwright gets his ninth start for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 2-4 with an ERA of 4.63 (46 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2.8 BB / 9 and 8.5 K / 9 this season.
- Last outing: Loss, 13-3, in 4 PI with 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 2 K at the San Diego Padres on May 15.
- Career against the Cubs: 17-13 with an ERA of 4.12 (262 1/3 IP, 120 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 7.9 K / 9 on 42 starts and nine bullpen outs.
- Vs. Cubs on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .249 / .306 / .411 slash, 51/18 K / BB, 9 HR and 34 RBIs.
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Cubs at Cardinals odds, lines, picks & predictions
- Silver line: Cubs +110 (bet $ 100 to win $ 110) | Cardinals -135 (bet $ 135 to win $ 100)
- Against the spread / ATS: Small +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
- More less: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Cardinals 5, Cubs 2
Silver Line (ML)
PAST because I’m worried the St. Louis reliever box is overworked and won’t be able to hold a lead, so I’m looking to play the Cardinals in the first 5 innings. Saint-Louis used four relievers in their 2-1 win on Saturday.
However, punters noticed this as well as the Cardinals’ starting advantage and rated them accordingly; St. Louis poses -155 for the first 5 innings.
Race Line / Against Spread (ATS)
BET the CARDINALS -0.5 (-110) 5 FIRST HANDS for 1 unit because Davies has been lit by St. Louis throughout his career, and advanced measurements paint a pretty bleak picture of Davies’ season so far.
Davies’ figures put forward are even more terrible than the basic ones. For example, Davies has just a 9.5% pullout rate, 8.36 FIP, 0.459 expected wOBA, and 0.861 expected slugging percentage compared to the St. Louis lineup.
Additionally, Davies scores below the 50th percentile in all Statcast measurements, including the single-digit percentile for puff rate, expected wOBA, K%, and expected ERA.
And, again, because the Chicago bullpen is better and cooler, we’re going to bet St. Louis’ sizable advantage in the starting pitching department.
Over / Under (O / U)
BET the LESS THAN 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit because over 95% of the money is on top (according to Pregame.com), and it is more profitable in gambling to fade than to follow this imbalanced market.
Also, it would appear that the market is robotically betting with two mediocre starting pitchers at best.
However, these teams have a combined 6-10 O / U record when these starters are on the mound, and the Under are 6-1-1 in the last eight Cubs-Cardinals meetings.
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