Free cash flow – Freedominst http://freedominst.org/ Thu, 22 Jul 2021 17:37:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 http://freedominst.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/cropped-favicon-32x32.png Free cash flow – Freedominst http://freedominst.org/ 32 32 Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) appears to be using debt quite wisely http://freedominst.org/broadcom-nasdaq-avgo-appears-to-be-using-debt-quite-wisely/ http://freedominst.org/broadcom-nasdaq-avgo-appears-to-be-using-debt-quite-wisely/#respond Thu, 22 Jul 2021 15:51:50 +0000 http://freedominst.org/broadcom-nasdaq-avgo-appears-to-be-using-debt-quite-wisely/

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett said “volatility is far from risk.” It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when looking at its level of risk, as debt is often involved when a business collapses. Mostly, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) is in debt. But does this debt worry shareholders?

What risk does debt entail?

Debt helps a business until the business struggles to repay it, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a business can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still costly) event is when a company has to issue stock at bargain prices, constantly diluting shareholders, just to strengthen its balance sheet. Of course, many companies use debt to finance their growth without negative consequences. The first step in examining a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash flow and debt together.

Check out our latest review for Broadcom

What is Broadcom’s debt?

As you can see below, Broadcom had $ 40.4 billion in debt in May 2021, up from $ 45.8 billion the year before. However, he also had $ 9.52 billion in cash, so his net debt is $ 30.9 billion.

NasdaqGS: AVGO Debt to Equity History July 22, 2021

Is Broadcom’s Balance Sheet Healthy?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Broadcom had liabilities of US $ 6.44 billion maturing within one year and liabilities of US $ 45.1 billion maturing beyond that. On the other hand, he had US $ 9.52 billion in cash and US $ 2.43 billion in receivables due within one year. As a result, it has liabilities totaling US $ 39.6 billion more than its cash and short-term receivables combined.

Broadcom has a very large market cap of $ 196.5 billion, so it could most likely raise funds to improve its balance sheet, should the need arise. However, it is always worth taking a close look at your ability to repay debts.

We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earning power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and calculating how easily its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) covers its interest costs (interest coverage). Thus, we consider debt versus earnings with and without amortization charges.

Broadcom has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn’t too much, but its interest coverage looks a bit low, with EBIT at just 3.5 times interest expense. . While we’re not worried about these numbers, it’s worth noting that the company’s cost of debt does have a real impact. It should be noted that Broadcom’s EBIT has soared like bamboo after the rain, gaining 78% in the past twelve months. This will make it easier to manage your debt. There is no doubt that we learn the most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future profits, more than anything, that will determine Broadcom’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So, if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free analyst earnings forecast report interesting.

But our last consideration is also important, because a business cannot pay its debts with paper profits; he needs hard cash. The logical step is therefore to examine the proportion of this EBIT that corresponds to the actual free cash flow. Over the past three years, Broadcom has actually generated more free cash flow than EBIT. This kind of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee costume.

Our point of view

Fortunately, Broadcom’s impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow means it has the upper hand over its debt. But frankly, we think his interest in the cover shakes that impression a bit. Given all of this data, it seems to us that Broadcom is taking a fairly reasonable approach to debt. While this carries some risk, it can also improve returns for shareholders. There is no doubt that we learn the most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risks lie on the balance sheet – far from it. These risks can be difficult to spot. Every business has them, and we’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Broadcom you should know.

At the end of the day, it’s often best to focus on businesses with no net debt. You can access our special list of these companies (all with a history of profit growth). It’s free.

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United Electronics Company (TADAWUL: 4003) to Pay 2.00 Dividend in Three Days http://freedominst.org/united-electronics-company-tadawul-4003-to-pay-2-00-dividend-in-three-days/ http://freedominst.org/united-electronics-company-tadawul-4003-to-pay-2-00-dividend-in-three-days/#respond Wed, 21 Jul 2021 03:09:31 +0000 http://freedominst.org/united-electronics-company-tadawul-4003-to-pay-2-00-dividend-in-three-days/

Readers wishing to buy United electronics company (TADAWUL: 4003) for its dividend will have to make its move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. The ex-dividend date is one working day before the registration date, which is the deadline by which shareholders must be present on the books of the company to be eligible for the payment of a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because every time a stock is bought or sold, the transaction takes at least two business days to settle. In other words, investors can buy United Electronics shares before July 25 in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on August 5.

The company’s upcoming dividend is 2.00 per share, following on from the past 12 months when the company has distributed a total of 3.00 per share to shareholders. Calculating the value of last year’s payouts shows United Electronics has a rolling 3.0% return on SAR135’s current share price. Dividends are an important source of income for many shareholders, but the health of the business is critical to sustaining those dividends. It is therefore necessary to check whether dividend payments are covered and whether profits are growing.

Check out our latest review for United Electronics

Dividends are usually paid out of the company’s profits, so if a company pays more than it earned, its dividend is usually at risk of being reduced. United Electronics paid 53% of its profits to investors last year, a normal payout level for most companies. A useful secondary check may be to assess whether United Electronics has generated sufficient free cash flow to pay its dividend. In the past year, it has paid out 132% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. It’s difficult to consistently pay more money than you generate without borrowing or using company cash, so we wonder how the company justifies this level of payment.

While United Electronics’ dividends were covered by the company’s reported profits, the cash flow is a bit more, so it’s not great to see that the company hasn’t generated enough cash to pay its dividends. Money is king, as they say, and if United Electronics were to repeatedly pay dividends that are not well covered by cash flow, we would take that as a warning sign.

Click here to view the company’s payout ratio, as well as analysts’ estimates of its future dividends.

SASE: 4003 Historic dividend July 21, 2021

Have profits and dividends increased?

Stocks of companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often offer the best dividend prospects because it’s easier to raise the dividend when earnings rise. If profits fall and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could see the value of their investment go up in smoke. It is encouraging to see United Electronics growing its profits rapidly, increasing 46% per year over the past five years. Profits have grown rapidly, but we’re concerned that dividend payments have consumed most of the company’s cash flow over the past year.

Many investors will assess a company’s dividend yield by evaluating how much dividend payments have changed over time. Since our data began four years ago, United Electronics has increased its dividend by about 38% per year on average. It is exciting to see that earnings and dividends per share have grown rapidly over the past few years.

Last takeaways

Should investors buy United Electronics for the next dividend? It is good to see that earnings per share are increasing and that the company’s payout ratio is within a normal range for most companies. However, we are somewhat concerned that he paid 132% of his cash flow, which is uncomfortably high. In summary, it’s hard to get excited about United Electronics from a dividend standpoint.

That being said, if dividends aren’t your biggest concern with United Electronics, you should be aware of the other risks this business faces. We have identified 3 warning signs with United Electronics (at least 1 which is potentially serious), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

A common investment mistake is to buy the first interesting stock you see. Here you will find a list of promising dividend paying stocks with a yield above 2% and an upcoming dividend.

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BABA Stock: Time to Buy Deeply Undervalued Alibaba Stock http://freedominst.org/baba-stock-time-to-buy-deeply-undervalued-alibaba-stock/ http://freedominst.org/baba-stock-time-to-buy-deeply-undervalued-alibaba-stock/#respond Tue, 20 Jul 2021 15:22:48 +0000 http://freedominst.org/baba-stock-time-to-buy-deeply-undervalued-alibaba-stock/

Ali Baba (NYSE:BABA) is a Chinese e-commerce company with a market capitalization of $ 574 billion and the largest in China. But recently, it has faced more competition and other headwinds in China. Nonetheless, Alibaba is still producing significant profits and free cash flow. As a result, BABA stock is still worth over 43% of today’s price, as I argued in my last post on May 26th.

Source: Kevin Chen Photography / Shutterstock.com

The stock has been on a roller coaster ride since it peaked on October 27, 2020, at $ 317.14. After falling to $ 222 on December 22, BABA stock started to rally back to $ 270.83 on February 27.

But since then it has fallen to a low of $ 199.85 on July 8. It has since returned to $ 208.18 as of July 19. The last time I wrote about the stock on May 26, it was at a similar level of $ 211.78.

Future benefits and evaluation

Alibaba will release its second quarter results on August 3, which analysts say will show 49.5% higher revenue to $ 32.54 billion. Additionally, analysts expect earnings per American Depository Share (ADS) of $ 2.24. But that will be lower than last June’s $ 2.46 per ADS profit.

Nevertheless, Alibaba should be able to show positive cash flow and positive free cash flow (FCF) during the quarter. I think it will help the stock to recover as well.

For example, last year the company produced FCF 5.176 billion on revenue of $ 21.762 for the quarter ending June 2020. This means its FCF margin was 23.78%. We can use it to project its FCF in the future and later its true value.

For example, analysts now forecast revenue for the year ending March 2022 to be $ 143.26 billion (essentially 2021). Later for the year ending March 2023 (essentially 2022), revenue is expected to reach $ 173.26 billion (i.e. 20.9% growth in 2022). This is useful for our company FCF estimates.

Using the 23.78% FCF margin metric, we can estimate that 2021 will have 34.1 billion FCF and 41.2 billion FCF in 2022. This is a large amount of FCF.

What is the value of the BABA share

As of July 19, BABA stock had a market cap of $ 574 billion. If we divide the 2022 FCF estimate by Alibaba’s market cap, we can see that the FCF return is 7.178% (i.e. $ 41.2 billion / $ 574 billion). This FCF yield is simply too high. It is indicative of a business that has real problems.

For example, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) produced $ 21.786 billion in free cash flow in the past 12 months (TTM) through March. This can be seen from the data on TTM’s financial site at In search of the alpha and subtracting $ 45.427 billion of investments from TTM’s cash flow operations of $ 67.213 billion. This implies that its FCF yield is 1.21% (i.e. $ 21.786 billion / $ 1.79 trillion).

Granted, Amazon is 3 times the size of Alibaba, but the difference between Alibaba’s 7.2% FCF return and Amazon’s 1.2% FCF return seems excessive.

For example, valuation of Alibaba shares with a 5% FCF return puts its value at $ 824 billion (i.e. $ 41.2 billion / 5%). This result is 43.6% higher than the current market value of $ 574 billion. It leads to a target price of $ 298.84, or nearly $ 300 per share.

If Alibaba achieves the same FCF margin as last year, it should produce a price 44% higher. It also assumes that the market will give BABA shares a lower FCF return. My guess is that the market will price the stock with a return of 5% FCF.

As of the publication date, Mark R. Hake does not hold any position in any of the stocks mentioned in the article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, submitted to InvestorPlace.com Publication guidelines.

Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and run the Total Value of Return Guide that you can consult here.

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Infinity Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INFI) Well Positioned to Achieve Growth Plans http://freedominst.org/infinity-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-infi-well-positioned-to-achieve-growth-plans/ http://freedominst.org/infinity-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-infi-well-positioned-to-achieve-growth-plans/#respond Sun, 18 Jul 2021 14:55:56 +0000 http://freedominst.org/infinity-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-infi-well-positioned-to-achieve-growth-plans/

Even when a company loses money, it is possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good company at the right price. For exemple, Infinity Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INFI) has seen its stock price rise 198% in the past year, delighting many shareholders. But while the successes are well known, investors shouldn’t ignore the myriad of unprofitable companies that simply burn all their money and collapse.

Given the strong performance of its share price, we believe it is worthwhile for Infinity Pharmaceuticals shareholders to consider whether its cash consumption is of concern. In this report, we will consider the company’s annual negative free cash flow, which we now call “cash burn”. Let’s start with a review of the company’s cash flow, relative to its cash consumption.

Check out our latest review for Infinity Pharmaceuticals

How long is the Infinity Pharmaceuticals cash flow track?

A company’s cash trail is the time it would take to deplete its cash reserves at its current rate of cash consumption. As of March 2021, Infinity Pharmaceuticals had US $ 107 million in cash and was debt free. Importantly, his cash consumption was US $ 37 million in the past twelve months. This means he had a cash trail of around 2.9 years in March 2021. It’s arguably a prudent and reasonable runway length to have. The image below shows how her cash balance has evolved over the past few years.

NasdaqGS: INFI History of debt to equity July 18, 2021

How well is Infinity Pharmaceuticals growing?

Overall, we think it is slightly positive that Infinity Pharmaceuticals has reduced its cash consumption by 6.2% over the past twelve months. On top of that, operating revenue rose 32%, making it an encouraging combination. Overall we would say the business improves over time. If the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most. For this reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecast for the company.

Can Infinity Pharmaceuticals Easily Raise More Money?

There is no doubt that Infinity Pharmaceuticals appears to be in a good enough position to manage its cash consumption, but even if it is only hypothetical, it is still worth wondering how easily it could raise more money. money to finance growth. Businesses can raise capital through debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to finance their future growth. By looking at a company’s cash consumption relative to its market capitalization, we get an idea of ​​how many shareholders would be diluted if the company were to raise enough cash to cover another year’s cash consumption.

Since it has a market capitalization of US $ 227 million, Infinity Pharmaceuticals’ US $ 37 million of cash consumption is equivalent to approximately 17% of its market value. As a result, we venture to think that the company could raise more cash for growth without too many problems, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

Is Infinity Pharmaceuticals Silver Consumption a Problem?

The good news is that we believe Infinity Pharmaceuticals’ cash position gives shareholders real cause for optimism. Not only was his revenue growth pretty good, but his cash flow track was really positive. Based on the factors mentioned in this article, we believe its cash-consuming situation deserves some attention from shareholders, but we don’t think they should be worried. Separately, we examined different risks affecting the business and identified 4 warning signs for Infinity Pharmaceuticals (1 of which is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

Of course Infinity Pharmaceuticals May Not Be The Best Stock To Buy. So you might want to see this free a set of companies with a high return on equity, or that list of stocks that insiders buy.

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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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2 cheap tech stocks to buy right now http://freedominst.org/2-cheap-tech-stocks-to-buy-right-now/ http://freedominst.org/2-cheap-tech-stocks-to-buy-right-now/#respond Sat, 17 Jul 2021 16:09:00 +0000 http://freedominst.org/2-cheap-tech-stocks-to-buy-right-now/

To buy stock in a growing, tech-focused company, investors typically have to pay a pretty dime out of the company’s profits. While many of these large companies often deserve the bonus multiples the market gives them, Mr. Market also gives occasional discounts.

Whether it’s due to a few bad quarters, dismal projections, or a number of other causes, from time to time stocks can grow disconnected from the future earnings of the underlying companies. Drop box (NASDAQ: DBX) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) are two technological stocks that fit this mold today.

Image source: Getty Images

Drop box

Dropbox, the popular file sharing and content collaboration platform, allows users to securely upload files, share and sign documents, collaborate on projects, and more.

As with many file storage services, Dropbox users are pretty clingy. Transferring documents and getting used to a new system can be a bit of a hassle. Not to mention that it can disrupt the workflow as teams often collaborate on projects simultaneously now. The high friction of the replacement process helped Dropbox generate a net revenue retention rate north of 90% and allowed the company to increase its average revenue per user (ARPU) by 5% compared to the last year.

Between the increase in ARPU and the 8% growth in its users, the company is currently on track to generate more than $ 2.1 billion in annual recurring revenue, an increase of 13% from the same. period a year ago. But it’s not just income growth that should get investors excited. Dropbox is taking several steps to increase its free cash flow per share at an even faster rate.

In February 2021, the board of directors approved a billion dollar share buyback program. Back then, that was over 10% of the company’s market cap, and today it equates to around 8%. With this action, shareholders should see a greater percentage of the company’s profits going to them.

Additionally, the pandemic has helped inspire Dropbox to scale up its operations. In January, management made the difficult decision to downsize by 11% and followed up with the company’s commitment to “go full remote working”.

With strong revenue growth, the strong buyback program, and lower operating costs, Dropbox expects it can reach $ 1 billion in free cash flow (FCF) by 2024, a 104% increase from in the last exercise. That’s a lot of growth for a company that trades at a price of 21 times the FCF over 12 months.

Gamer wearing headphones and holding a gamepad on the sofa.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nintendo

Nintendo has been a mainstay of the video game industry for about 50 years. But it was only recently that the company finally brought together all of its experience and strengths.

In March 2017, Nintendo released the best-selling console of the past three years, the Nintendo Switch. It combines the convenience of a portable console with the advantages of a fixed console. However, unlike previous Nintendo consoles, Switch user accounts are no longer tied to specific hardware. Instead, by introducing Nintendo Online, users can save their data in the cloud and access digital games downloaded on newer versions of the platform, like the Switch Lite.

This online focus has made it easier for customers to upgrade to new Switch iterations. It has helped Nintendo sell nearly 85 million units since the Switch launched, and is expected to sell an additional 29 million this year. Combining this massive installed base with the company’s portfolio of world-renowned brands such as Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon (of which Nintendo owns at least 33%) has helped the company generate solid profit growth through increased game sales. Since 2017, Nintendo’s annual operating profits have grown more than 20-fold, reaching a record high of $ 5.8 billion in its most recent fiscal year!

However, despite this remarkable growth, the stock is currently trading at a price / operating income multiple of 12 times. This is way below the evaluation of the game’s peers such as Activision Blizzard and Electronic arts.

While there are still a number of factors that can cause stock prices to fall, concerns about cyclicality seem to be bogged down by Nintendo. Management doesn’t fight much either, as they continue to provide ultra-conservative guidance despite consistently exceeding their own expectations.

Yet even if management’s estimates for 2021 turn out to be correct and the number of new consoles sold declines over the next year, the path to greater long-term profits is still clear. As more households adopt different versions of the Switch console, game development will become more profitable as the company will have a larger customer base to sell. And game purchases are becoming increasingly digital, which should also lower distribution costs.

If Nintendo’s track record of earnings growth persists, the current share price will look pretty cheap in hindsight.

This article represents the opinion of the author, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a premium Motley Fool consulting service. We are motley! Challenging an investment thesis – even one of our own – helps us all to think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.

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Do not buy Castings PLC (LON: CGS) for its next dividend without doing these checks http://freedominst.org/do-not-buy-castings-plc-lon-cgs-for-its-next-dividend-without-doing-these-checks/ http://freedominst.org/do-not-buy-castings-plc-lon-cgs-for-its-next-dividend-without-doing-these-checks/#respond Sat, 17 Jul 2021 07:43:35 +0000 http://freedominst.org/do-not-buy-castings-plc-lon-cgs-for-its-next-dividend-without-doing-these-checks/

PLC moldings (LON: CGS) the stock is about to trade ex-dividend in 4 days. The ex-dividend date is a business day before a company’s registration date, which is the date the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any share transaction must have been settled before the registration date to be eligible for a dividend. As a result, Castings investors who buy the shares on or after July 22 will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on August 23.

The company’s forthcoming dividend is £ 0.12 per share, following the last 12 months when the company has distributed a total of £ 0.15 per share to shareholders. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, Castings has a sliding return of around 3.7% on its current price of £ 4.14. If you are buying this company for its dividend, you should know if Castings’ dividend is reliable and sustainable. That is why we should always check whether dividend payments seem sustainable and whether the business is growing.

See our latest analysis for Castings

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits. If a company pays more dividends than it has made a profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Castings have paid 160% of profits over the past year, which in our opinion is generally not sustainable unless there are mitigating features such as unusually high cash flow or a balance. important cash flow. A useful secondary check can be to assess whether Castings has generated enough free cash flow to pay its dividend. It paid out 91% of its free cash flow as dividends last year, which is outside the comfort zone for most companies. Businesses generally need more cash than profits – the expenses don’t pay for themselves – so it’s not great to see them shell out so much of their cash.

Cash is slightly more important than earnings from a dividend perspective, but since Castings’ payments were not well covered by earnings or cash flow, we are concerned about the sustainability of this dividend.

Click on here to see how much of his Profits Castings has paid off in the past 12 months.

historic-dividend

Have profits and dividends increased?

Companies with declining profits are tricky from a dividend standpoint. If profits fall enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. Readers will then understand why we are concerned that Castings’ earnings per share have fallen 24% per year over the past five years. Ultimately, when earnings per share declines, the size of the pie from which dividends can be paid declines.

Many investors will assess a company’s dividend yield by evaluating how much dividend payments have changed over time. Since our data began 10 years ago, Castings has increased its dividend by around 3.6% per year on average. It’s intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite falling profits can usually only be achieved by paying a higher percentage of the profits. Castings is already paying out 160% of its profits, and with declining profits, we think this dividend is unlikely to grow quickly in the future.

Last takeaways

Should investors buy Castings for the next dividend? It looks like an unattractive opportunity, with its earnings per share falling, while paying an uncomfortably high percentage of its earnings (160%) and cash flow as dividends. This is a clearly suboptimal combination which generally suggests that the dividend may be reduced. If not now, then maybe in the future. This is not an attractive combination from a dividend standpoint, and we are inclined to forgo this one for the time being.

With that in mind, if Castings’ low dividend characteristics don’t scare you, it’s worth being aware of the risks involved in this business. Every business has risks, and we have spotted 3 warning signs for Castings (1 of which should not be ignored!) that you should know.

A common investment mistake is to buy the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a list of promising dividend-paying stocks with a yield above 2% and a future dividend.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.

Do you have any feedback on this item? Are you worried about the content? Get in touch with us directly. You can also send an email to the editorial team (at) simplywallst.com.

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Calculation of the intrinsic value of Cnova NV (EPA: CNV) http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-cnova-nv-epa-cnv/ http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-cnova-nv-epa-cnv/#respond Thu, 15 Jul 2021 07:11:52 +0000 http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-cnova-nv-epa-cnv/

Today we are going to review a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Cnova NV (EPA: CNV) as an investment opportunity by taking the company’s future cash flow forecast and by updating them to today’s value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won’t be able to figure it out, read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.

There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to stress that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. If you still have burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest review for Cnova

The method

We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. In the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Since no free cash flow analyst estimate is available, we have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last reported value of the company. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.

A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Leverage FCF (€, Millions) € 103.8m € 116.7m € 127.0m € 135.0m € 141.1m € 145.6m 149.1 M € 151.8 M € € 153.8m 155.5 M €
Source of growth rate estimate Est @ 17.59% Is 12.42% East @ 8.8% East @ 6.27% Is 4.5% East @ 3.26% East @ 2.39% East @ 1.78% Est @ 1.35% East @ 1.06%
Present value (€, Millions) discounted @ 5.7% € 98.3 105 € € 108 € 108 107 € 105 € € 101 € 97.8 € 93.8 € 89.7

(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = 1.0 billion euros

The next step is to calculate the Terminal Value, which takes into account all future cash flows after this ten-year period. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.4%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 5.7%.

Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = € 155m × (1 + 0.4%) ÷ (5.7% – 0.4%) = € 2.9bn

Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= € 2.9bn ÷ (1 + 5.7%)ten= € 1.7bn

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is 2.7 billion euros. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current stock price of € 9.2, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.

ENXTPA: CNV discounted cash flow July 15, 2021

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Cnova as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 5.7%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.121. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.

To move on :

While valuing a business is important, it’s just one of the many factors you need to assess for a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For Cnova, we have compiled three relevant elements to take into account:

  1. Risks: We think you should evaluate the 2 warning signs for Cnova (1 doesn’t suit us too much!) We reported before investing in the company.
  2. Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
  3. Other picks from top analysts: Interested in seeing what analysts think? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts’ top stock picks to find out what they think might have a compelling outlook for the future!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every French stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of another stock just search here.

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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
*Interactive Brokers Ranked Least Expensive Broker By StockBrokers.com Online Annual Review 2020

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A look at the fair value of Matrix IT Ltd. (TLV: MTRX) http://freedominst.org/a-look-at-the-fair-value-of-matrix-it-ltd-tlv-mtrx/ http://freedominst.org/a-look-at-the-fair-value-of-matrix-it-ltd-tlv-mtrx/#respond Tue, 13 Jul 2021 04:55:33 +0000 http://freedominst.org/a-look-at-the-fair-value-of-matrix-it-ltd-tlv-mtrx/

How far away is Matrix IT Ltd. (TLV: MTRX) of its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll examine whether the stock price is fair by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. One way to do this is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they are fairly easy to follow.

There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to stress that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. Anyone interested in knowing a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Matrix IT

Step by step in the calculation

We are going to use a two-step DCF model, which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “steady growth”. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Since no free cash flow analyst estimate is available, we have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last reported value of the company. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.

A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:

10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Leverage FCF (₪, Million) 300.7 m 313.8m 325.0m 334.6m ₪ 343.1m 350.9m ₪ 358.2m 365.1m 371.8m ₪ 378.3m
Source of estimated growth rate East @ 5.57% East @ 4.38% Is @ 3.55% Est @ 2.96% Is 2.55% East @ 2.27% East @ 2.07% East @ 1.93% East @ 1.83% East @ 1.76%
Present value (₪, Million) discounted @ 8.0% ₪ 278 ₪ 269 258 ₪ 246 234 222 209 198 186 176

(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = ₪ 2.3b

The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 8.0%.

Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 378m × (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (8.0% –1.6%) = ₪ 6.0b

Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= ₪ 6.0b ÷ (1 + 8.0%)ten= 2.8b

The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is ₪ 5.1b. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of 85.7, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.

TASE: MTRX Discounted Cash Flows July 13, 2021

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Matrix IT as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 8.0%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.179. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.

Looking forward:

While important, calculating DCF shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when looking for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For Matrix IT, we have compiled three relevant aspects that you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we discovered 2 warning signs for Matrix IT which you should know before investing here.
  2. Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
  3. Other environmentally friendly companies: Are you concerned about the environment and think that consumers will buy more and more environmentally friendly products? Browse our interactive list of companies thinking about a greener future to discover stocks you might not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each TASE share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, do a search here.

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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
*Interactive Brokers Ranked Least Expensive Broker By StockBrokers.com Online Annual Review 2020

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Four days remain until state-owned Kurgan Generation Company (MCX: KGKC) negotiates the ex-dividend http://freedominst.org/four-days-remain-until-state-owned-kurgan-generation-company-mcx-kgkc-negotiates-the-ex-dividend/ http://freedominst.org/four-days-remain-until-state-owned-kurgan-generation-company-mcx-kgkc-negotiates-the-ex-dividend/#respond Sun, 11 Jul 2021 05:35:47 +0000 http://freedominst.org/four-days-remain-until-state-owned-kurgan-generation-company-mcx-kgkc-negotiates-the-ex-dividend/

Some investors rely on dividends to grow their wealth, and if you’re one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Kurgan Generation Company Public Joint Stock Company (MCX: KGKC) is set to be ex-dividend in just 4 days. The ex-dividend date is generally set at one working day before the registration date which is the deadline by which you must be present in the books of the company as a shareholder to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because every time a stock is bought or sold, the transaction takes at least two business days to settle. Thus, you can buy Kurgan Generation shares before July 16 in order to receive the dividend that the company will pay on January 1.

The company’s upcoming dividend is 2.25 per share, following on from the past 12 months when the company has distributed a total of 2.25 per share to shareholders. Last year’s total dividend payments show Kurgan Generation has a rolling 4.4% return on RUB51’s current share price. Dividends are a major contributor to returns on investment for long-term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. It is therefore necessary to check whether dividend payments are covered and whether profits are growing.

See our latest analysis for Kurgan Generation

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits. If a company pays more dividends than it made a profit, the dividend could be unsustainable. It paid out 86% of its profits as dividends last year, which is not unreasonable, but limits reinvestment in the business and leaves the dividend vulnerable to a downturn in activity. We would be concerned if profits started to decline. Yet cash flow is still more important than earnings in valuing a dividend, so we need to see if the company has generated enough cash to pay for its distribution. It distributed 47% of its free cash flow in the form of dividends, a comfortable level of distribution for most companies.

It is encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both earnings and cash flow. This usually suggests that the dividend is sustainable, as long as profits don’t drop sharply.

Click here to see how much of its profits Kurgan Generation has paid in the past 12 months.

Historic MISX dividend: KGKC July 11, 2021

Have profits and dividends increased?

When profits fall, dividend companies become much more difficult to analyze and to safely own. Investors love dividends, so if profits fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold massively at the same time. Readers will then understand why we are concerned that Kurgan Generation’s earnings per share have fallen 29% per year over the past five years. When earnings per share decrease, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also decreases.

Many investors will assess a company’s dividend yield by evaluating how much dividend payments have changed over time. Over the past six years, Kurgan Generation has increased its dividend by around 35% per year on average. It’s intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite falling profits can usually only be achieved by paying a higher percentage of the profits. Kurgan Generation is already paying out 86% of its profits, and with declining profits, we believe this dividend is unlikely to grow rapidly in the future.

The bottom line

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Kurgan Generation? We’re not thrilled with the drop in earnings per share, although at least the company’s payout ratio is in a reasonable range, meaning there may not be any imminent risk. lower dividend. Overall, we are not extremely bearish on the stock, but there are probably better dividend investments.

However, if you are still interested in Kurgan Generation as a potential investment, you should definitely consider some of the risks associated with Kurgan Generation. We have identified 4 warning signs with Kurgan Generation (at least 1 which is potentially serious), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

A common investment mistake is to buy the first interesting stock you see. Here you will find a list of promising dividend paying stocks with a yield above 2% and an upcoming dividend.

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When trading Kurgan Generation or any other investment, use the platform seen by many as the professionals’ gateway to the global market, Interactive brokers. You get the cheapest * trading on stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds from around the world from a single integrated account.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
*Interactive Brokers Ranked Least Expensive Broker By StockBrokers.com Online Annual Review 2020

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Calculation of the intrinsic value of Grifols, SA (BME: GRF) http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-grifols-sa-bme-grf/ http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-grifols-sa-bme-grf/#respond Sat, 10 Jul 2021 06:33:32 +0000 http://freedominst.org/calculation-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-grifols-sa-bme-grf/

How far is Grifols, SA (BME: GRF) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll examine whether the stock price is fair by taking the company’s future cash flow forecast and discounting it to today’s value. To this end, we will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.

There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to point out that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. Anyone interested in knowing a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Grifols

The model

We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. In the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.

A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, and therefore the sum of those future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value. :

10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Leverage FCF (€, Millions) € 702.6m € 852.7 million € 924.6m € 1.00 billion 1.05 billion euros 1.10 billion euros 1.13 billion euros 1.16 billion euros 1.18 billion euros € 1.20 billion
Source of estimated growth rate Analyst x12 Analyst x11 Analyst x6 Analyst x4 Est @ 5.39% East @ 4.07% Is @ 3.15% Is 2.5% East @ 2.05% East @ 1.73%
Present value (€, Millions) discounted @ 8.8% 646 € € 721 € 719 € 715 € 693 € 663 € 629 € 592 € 556 520 €

(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = € 6.5bn

The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.

Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = € 1.2 billion × (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (8.8% – 1.0%) = € 16 billion

Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= € 16bn ÷ (1 + 8.8%)ten= € 6.8bn

The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the Total Equity Value, which in this case is 13 billion euros. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current stock price of € 21.7, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.

BME discounted cash flow: GRF July 10, 2021

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Grifols as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 8.8%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.240. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.

Looking forward:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it’s just one of the many factors you need to evaluate for a business. DCF models are not the alpha and omega of investment valuation. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For Grifols, we’ve compiled three more things you should dig into:

  1. Risks: Note that Grifols displays 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of them doesn’t go too well with us …
  2. Future benefits: How does GRF’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
  3. Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Spanish stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
*Interactive Brokers Ranked Least Expensive Broker By StockBrokers.com Online Annual Review 2020

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