Does The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) Stock Price for January Reflect What It’s Really Worth? Today we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by estimating the future cash flows of the company and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. This may sound complicated, but it’s actually quite simple!
Remember though that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business and a DCF is just one method. For those who are passionate about stock analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may interest you.
Check out our latest analysis for the New York Times
Step by step in the calculation
We use what is called a 2-stage model, which simply means that we have two different periods of company cash flow growth rates. Generally, the first stage is a higher growth phase and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we need to obtain cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-Year Free Cash Flow (FCF) Forecast
|Leveraged FCF ($, millions)||$243.7 million||$310.1 million||$387.2 million||US$445.9m||$489.0 million||$525.0 million||$555.1 million||$580.6 million||$602.8 million||$622.4 million|
|Growth rate estimate Source||Analyst x3||Analyst x4||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Is at 9.67%||Is at 7.35%||Is at 5.74%||Is at 4.6%||Is at 3.81%||Is at 3.26%|
|Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 5.6%||$231||$278||$329||$359||$373||$379||$380||$376||$370||$362|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) = $3.4 billion
The second stage is also known as the terminal value, it is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount terminal cash flows to present value at a cost of equity of 5.6%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $622 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (5.6%–2.0%) = $18 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= $18 billion ÷ (1 + 5.6%)ten= $10 billion
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is $14 billion. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$43.0, the company appears to be pretty good value at a 47% discount to the current share price. Remember though that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
We emphasize that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry, nor the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider The New York Times as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 5.6%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 0.824. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Let’s move on :
Although a business valuation is important, it is only one of many factors you need to assess for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on the valuation. Can we understand why the company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value? For The New York Times, we’ve compiled three important aspects you should consider:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for the New York Times we found out before considering an investment in the business.
- Future earnings: How does NYT’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with strong trading fundamentals to see if there are any other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks, search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.