How far is Bubs Australia Limited (ASX: BUB) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll examine whether the stock’s price is fair by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don’t be put off by the lingo, the underlying calculations are actually pretty straightforward.
We draw your attention to the fact that there are many ways to assess a business and, like DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest review for Bubs Australia
What is the estimated valuation?
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF (A $, Millions)||-10.8 million Australian dollars||– AU $ 11.2 million||-3.45 million Australian dollars||AU $ 3.90 million||AU $ 5.85 million||AU $ 7.93 million||AU $ 9.95 million||AU $ 11.8 million||AU $ 13.4 million||AU $ 14.7 million|
|Source of estimated growth rate||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x1||Is 50.03%||East @ 35.58%||East @ 25.46%||Est @ 18.38%||East @ 13.43%||Est @ 9.96%|
|Present value (A $, Millions) discounted @ 5.4%||-A $ 10.3||– A $ 10.1||-2.9 AU $||AU $ 3.2||AU $ 4.5||A $ 5.8||A $ 6.9||AU $ 7.8||AU $ 8.4||AU $ 8.7|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = AU $ 21 million
The second stage is also known as terminal value, it is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year âgrowthâ period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 5.4%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 Ã (1 + g) Ã· (r – g) = AU $ 15 million Ã (1 + 1.9%) Ã· (5.4% to 1.9%) = AU $ 427 million
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= AU $ 427m Ã· (1 + 5.4%)ten= 253 million Australian dollars
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is AU $ 274 million. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU $ 0.5, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Bubs Australia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation we have used 5.4% which is based on a leverage beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it’s just one of the many factors you need to evaluate for a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. For Bubs Australia, we have put together three additional aspects that you need to assess:
- Risks: For example, we have identified 2 warning signs for Bubs Australia that you need to be aware of.
- Future benefits: How does BUB’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.