A look at the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies outlook

The only stat that really mattered after a 162-game season was that the Phillies were 6½ games away from first place. They have lost six games in the standings over the past seven weeks, fading once again in September despite a favorable schedule.

But there’s a lot to take from another disappointing season on what lies ahead for the Phillies in 2022. The team’s offseason plan will take that form this month with free agency starting in November, before the start of the season. spring training in February.

And if we take a look back, maybe we can get a glimpse of the future. Here are 10 stats from 2021 that provide a snapshot of the 2022 Phillies.

Home runs cleared all nine innings by Aaron Nola. It was the 10th highest rate in majors and nearly double the rate in his career best season in 2018. Nola’s strikeout rate, walk rate and contact rate were similar to seasons. previous years, but his flying ball rate (40.5%) was the ninth-highest in majors and a peak of 13% from 2020. This flyball rate led to a peak in the circuits, bringing l Nola’s ERA at 4.63, the fifth-highest in baseball. His xFIP (3.37) and SIERA (3.26) – two advanced stats that are similar to ERA but don’t punish pitchers for things they can’t control like defense – placed him among the throwers of The game’s elite. There is nothing harder to produce than starting to pitch and Nola has an affordable contract for two more seasons. The Phillies need him to throw at the top of the rotation. And if he lowers his flyball rate, his ERA could be as good as his leading numbers.

READ MORE: Young players facing Bryce Harper’s challenge with the Phillies in 2022

Zack Wheeler’s throws in the seventh inning or later, which was the most by any baseball pitcher. The Phillies have pushed Wheeler further this season than any other pitcher, and he led the majors in innings (213.1) and was second in strikeouts (247) while positioning himself to be at least a finalist for the Cy Young Award. But Joe Girardi expressed some caution last week about how a heavy workload in 2021 after the shortened 2020 season could affect a pitcher in 2022. It’s something to watch out for. “It’s not the effect of just starting a 60-game season,” Girardi said. “These are the effects of throwing the next season into a 162-game season. What does it do to guys who have pitched a lot of innings? I don’t think any of us know the answer until next year, but I think he’ll be ready. I have no doubt about it.

Bryce harper’s on-base-plus-slugging-plus go out is the highest by a Phillies hitter aged 28 or under since Dick Allen, 24, had an OPS + 181 in 1966. How has Allen followed this season? He reached 0.307 with a base percentage of 0.404, the best in the National League, and an OPS of 0.970, the best in the NL. The Phillies would take that from Harper as a callback to an MVP-worthy season.

Percent more sinking action by Ranger Suarez on his sinker relative to the league average, which was 16th best among left-handed pitchers. He finished the season with a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings, 62% of which as a starting pitcher. He found success with his lead because it induced weak contact and had the lowest fifth barrels – a StatCast metric that combines a bullet’s exit speed and launch angle – by plate appearance among all launchers. He started 2021 in the minors, but he will start 2022 in the rotation.

Contact rate by Jean Segura, who placed 17th among 132 skilled hitters. In 2020, Segura traded in their usual high contact rate for a higher walk rate in hopes of increasing their base percentage. It worked, but his batting average dropped significantly. He found a way in 2021 to walk at a higher pace than in 2019 while reaching 24 points higher than in 2020 with a base percentage (0.348) that was one point higher than last season. Segura was a complete hitter and it started with the fact that he got back in touch. He has a year left on the contract, which makes Segura, who turns 32 in March, an interesting business candidate this winter as the Phillies could look to capitalize on their best season since 2018. And if they do, they will have to know who is playing second base.

READ MORE: Ten years, no playoffs: Can the Phillies come back in 2022?

Matt Vierling’s Contact Percentage with an exit speed of 95 mph or more, giving it the 12th hardest hit rate by StatCast. Vierling spent the final month of the season in the majors and reached .313 with an .842 OPS on 70 home plate appearances. It was his ability to hit the ball with force and consistency that impressed the most. He played a role for next season, ideally as a fourth outfielder who can also play at first base. But that role could change depending on how the Phillies approach their offseason.

Alec Bohm slugging percentage against four seam fastballs, who is the second lowest among all hitters with at least 100 home plate appearances. Bohm has had a tough season – .647 OPS in 417 home plate appearances – but he still plans to have a role in 2022. See Bohm as one of the top priorities for the new batting coach, who will need to understand why Bohm has so much. struggled against fast balls and throws in the area, on which he hit only 0.359.

Didi Gregorius batting average against fastballs in the strike zone, who was the 27th lowest among 440 skilled hitters. He finished the season with career lows in batting average (0.209), base percentage (0.270) and stroke percentage (0.639). Teams simply challenged him with fastballs in the strike zone, which he saw for 32.9% of his throws (55th among 306 batters with 100 home plate appearances). He owes $ 15 million in 2022, but it would be quite a gamble for the Phillies to count on him for a role every day. They may have to cut their losses this winter.

Major League starts with Mickey Moniak after April 25. It’s been five years since the Phillies drafted Moniak at No. 1, but the decision-makers who made the choice are no longer making the calls. And those who appear to be on Moniak, which was evident from the way he’s been used over the last five months of the season. Girardi said Moniak is shaping up to be more of a corner fielder and chairman Dave Dombrowski has said Moniak “is a few years away.” He is a candidate for the exchange this winter.

READ MORE: Bryce Harper challenges young players to help end Phillies playoff drought

Rhys Hoskins’ stroke percentage in the second half before undergoing end-of-season surgery. This is the second highest score in the majors among all hitters with at least 60 at-hits after the all-star break. If Hoskins stayed healthy and kept that production going, maybe his paired bat with Harper’s would have been enough to push the Phillies into October. If the National League adopts the designated hitter this offseason, Hoskins appears to be the best internal candidate to fill the role. If so, this could be a way to ensure his bat stays in the lineup and not on the injured list.

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